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02 September 2010

Radio: Another President, Another Try for Middle East Peace

Palestine Center executive director Yousef Munayyer appeared on a Public Radio International program, To the Point, to discuss the return to talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

The panelists included:

Robin Wright: Senior Fellow, US Institute of Peace
Martin Indyk: former US Ambassador to Israel
Yousef Munayyer: Executive Director, Palestine Center
Yossi Beilin: former Israeli Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister

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The blurb from the show:
Secretary of State Clinton today formally opened the first direct talks in almost two years between Israel and the West Bank Palestinians. In a public ceremony, she addressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Under non-stop pressure from the United States, the challenge is to resolve decades-long disagreements in the next year, but even advocates of a Palestinian state say failure could make matters worse. How far apart are they on settlements, borders, the "right of return" and the status of Jerusalem? Neither Abbas nor Netanyahu has much domestic support for historic compromise. Did they come together because of their worries about Iran?
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Hope Without Reason: The Logic of the Direct Talks

By Yousef Munayyer  

Hope without reason is irresponsible and dangerous. I've been telling people that if the task before you was getting an elephant into a phone booth, you wouldn't be talking about hope or optimism. This current process is similarly impossible. Ultimately, hope in this case may hurt the elephant and leave the booth irreparable. It's time to get real.

Last night's comments by Benjamin Netanyahu display just how problematic this process is. Last year, the Obama administration pressed him to say the words "Palestinian State'" he did no such thing last night and spoke instead vaguely about a peace of security or a lasting peace and so on. Netanyahu has always been opposed to a Palestinian state and while every other leader spoke of this goal last night, Netanyahu chose vague platitudes instead which reassure people that this is the same Netanyahu who claimed credit for torpedoing the Oslo Accords and not the Netanyahu the Obama Administration wants us to believe it is.

Keep in mind that of the three, Netanyahu is in the strongest domestic position, followed by Obama, and then Abbas in a very distant third. The current process provides an incentive structure which only encourages Hamas to derail, bringing them into the discussion, however unpalatable, would force them to be more accountable for their actions and allow Israel to make peace with its enemies, not just its friends.

Palestinian division is a real obstacle but it is being exacerbated by the insistence of the U.S. and Israel to have peace talks while Israel is building settlements and demolishing Palestinian houses. The "settlement freeze" which is due to expire on Sept. 26th, was violated well over 490 times in the last 10 months according to an American Jewish settlement watchdog. So what is needed is not simply an extension of a deadline but an end to all settlement activity and house demolition. This is not a precondition either, nor is it simply what international law dictates, it is rather an obligation which Israel accepted under the Road Map agreement in 2003.

But the biggest problem is the absence of a even-handed mediator. The Road Map was an American initiative, it pushed both sides to agree to it. After seven years the U.S. is still failing to get Israel to abide by its first phase obligation. How can any progress be made when there is such a tremendous power imbalance between both sides and a mediator unwilling (or unable) to enforce obligations which have been agreed upon?

The timing and way these talks came about also suggests their inevitable failure. Abbas spent months telling Palestinians, many of whom question his legitimacy as their leader, that he would not enter talks without a settlement freeze. Netanyahu was telling his constituents the opposite. Obama's policy of pushing Netanyahu to announce a settlement freeze was being criticized from inside the administration and from outside of it by domestic allies and opponents. If this settlement freeze deadline came and went with nothing to show for it in terms of talks, this would seem to validate the critical claim that Obama's Mid East peace efforts since the beginning of his administration have unfairly targeting Israel.

To get both sides to agree to direct talks, the Obama administration had to basically speak out of both sides of its mouth to garner consent of the parties. While the official invitation from the State Department, which Netanyahu accepted, mentioned talks "without preconditions" (i.e. settlement freeze), the Quartet invitation, which Abbas accepted, talked about a settlement freeze and ending the occupation of East Jerusalem. I go into detail about the wording here.

With an election around the corner, one that features those on the right associating those on the left with being Muslims, un-American, or Socialists, Obama could not afford to seem that his pushing of Netanyahu for a freeze was an unwarranted failure. There is no shortage of races in this country where the right is using Israel policy as a bludgeon and the generating no talks before the end of the freeze deadline would lend ammo to Republicans.

But why would Obama move toward talks even if its clear they are destined to fail? Obama's actions are very simple to explain, the political costs of not holding these talks before the Sept. 26th deadline are significant whereas the costs of them failing can be displaced, as they always have, on the Palestinian side.

[cross-posted from POLITICO.com]
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Which Netanyahu Is It?



Last year, when the anticipated tensions were rising between the Obama and Netanyahu administrations, a speech Netanyahu gave in which he supposedly supported the notion of a Palestinian state was viewed by some as an evidence of Netanyahu's willingness to break from past stances and accept the need to end the occupation. Here was the beginning of the New York Times story on that occasion:
The prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, on Sunday endorsed for the first time the principle of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, but on condition that the state was demilitarized and that the Palestinians recognized Israel as the state of the Jewish people.

In a much-anticipated speech meant in part as an answer to President Obama’s address in Cairo on June 4, Mr. Netanyahu reversed his longstanding opposition to Palestinian statehood, a move seen as a concession to American pressure.
This was heralded precisely because Netanyahu was a late comer to the now 20 year peace process based on the two-state framework. The Israeli Prime Minister never believed in a Palestinian State and the charter of his Likud Party denies the possibility of a Palestinian State west of the Jordan. Here is the charter's vital excerpt (emphasis mine):
The overall objectives for the final status with the Palestinians are: to end the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians on the basis of a stable, sustainable agreement and replace confrontation with cooperation and good neighborliness, while safeguarding Israel's vital interests as a secure and prosperous Zionist and Jewish state.

The Likud government will honor all the international agreements signed by its predecessors and strive to achieve a final status arrangement with the Palestinians. The only way to reach a final status arrangement is via dialogue and political negotiations.

The permanent status arrangement will minimize the security dangers implicit in the Oslo accords. The primary such danger is the presence and the possible expansion of the Palestinian security forces within close range of Israel's population centers, government offices, emergency warehouses and staging areas of the Israel Defense Forces.

The permanent status arrangement shall be based on the following principles:

The Government of Israel flatly rejects the establishment of a Palestinian Arab state west of the Jordan river.

The Palestinians can run their lives freely in the framework of self-rule, but not as an independent and sovereign state.
Of all the leaders who spoke at the launch of the talks last night at the White House, every single one spoke of a Palestinian State.....EXCEPT Netanyahu.

This may seem trivial to some but when you take into consideration how sickeningly common phrases like "Palestinian State" or "two-sides living side by side in peace" and "two-state solution" are in the diplomatic discourse on this issue, its evident that a real effort has to be made to avoid such language.

Netanyahu spoke of a number of things consistent with the language in the Likud Party charter "a secure and durable peace" and a "peace that will end the conflict between us once and for all," a "peace between peoples". But through this, Palestinians heard only what they have heard from Netanyahu for years, that Netanyahu wants peace and security for Israelis and recognizes that "another people shares this land" but stops short of recognizing the necessity of that other people, the Palestinians, to have sovereignty.

Netanyahu's hope is for an economic peace of Palestinian submission, not independence. He hinted at this in his remarks when he said "I see what a period of calm has created in the Palestinian cities of Ramallah, of Jenin, throughout the West Bank, a great economic boom. And real peace can turn this boom into a permanent era of progress and hope."

It seems that this didn't sit well at dinner with the other leaders and President Obama since Netnayahu's remarks this morning at the State Department made clarifications referencing the Bar Ilan speech and his willingness to accept a Palestinian state (that isn't a state). He mentioned reconciling Israel's requirements of security with Palestinian requirements of sovereignty and he mentioned a Palestinian state. But this entire episode, evolving in less than 24 hours, speaks to just how deceptive Netanyahu's words can be and underscores the importance of judging Israeli intentions by actions and not words.

Considering it's actions include the expansion of illegal settlements, the demolition of Palestinian homes, the de-Arabization of Jerusalem and the collective punishment of Gaza, and it's words are coming from someone who said American is easy to push around and admitted he undermined past peace negotiations, what reason do Palestinians have to think anything Netanyahu says about peace is genuine.
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Video: Munayyer Debates the Direct Talks



With the US war in Iraq drawing to a close, the Middle East moved front and center for administration officials Wednesday as President Barack Obama held a series of high-stakes meetings with Israeli and Arab leaders. Both Daniel Pollak from Zionist Organization of America and Yousef Munayyer from The Palestine Center agree that there will not be a peace deal in place after these negotiations.
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31 August 2010

When Settlers Attack vs. When Settlers Are Attacked

This afternoon news began to break about the killing of 4 Israeli settlers near the Palestinian town of Hebron. Surely, the killing of any unarmed civilians, whether their presence in a particular area is legal or not, is condemnable and many have been swift to condemn today's act of violence and put it into perspective as an attempt to derail peace talks (as if these talks needed any help to fail).

Within minutes many major news outlets began reporting about this event. Here is Isabel Kershner's coverage in the NYT:
Four Israelis, including a pregnant woman, were killed when their car was fired on in the West Bank on Tuesday evening, in the deadliest attack on Israelis in more than two years.

The killings appeared to be an effort by Palestinian militants to upset peace talks due to start in Washington on Thursday. Hamas claimed responsibility for the shootings, the Associated Press reported.

....

In July, Israeli security officials said they had arrested several members of the military wing of Hamas, the Islamic group, who were responsible for the fatal shooting of an Israeli police officer south of Hebron in June.

In March 2008, a Palestinian gunman from East Jerusalem killed eight students, mostly teenagers, at a religious seminary in the city.
As I am in the midst of analyzing data on settler violence it struck me how much this coverage chose to ignore about the dynamics of violence around settlements in the West Bank when it mentioned only Palestinian acts of violence going back to 2008 but didn't waste a word on mentioning settler violence. Settler violence, often perpetrated with the knowledge, or assistance of the IDF, is just as likely to jeopardize the 'peace process' yet we rarely hear of it.

A quick query of the data, covering over 1000+ events, tells us the NYT story skipped over a lot, including over 260 acts of settler violence in the Hebron governorate alone since 2009. These include 56 instances of assault, 53 instances of stone throwing, 28 attacks on houses and attempted house seizures, 11 acts of arson and many more.

These acts of settler violence, again, in this one part of the West Bank in only the last 20 months has left 1 dead and 93 injured among Palestinians as well as incalculable amounts of property damage (the totals for the entire West Bank are much higher). Attacks perpetrated against Palestinians over this time period in the Hebron governorate were launched from the settlements of Adorah, Bat Ayin, Bat Hadassah, Hagai, Harsi, Karmei Tzur, Karmiel, Kfar Etzion, Kiryat Arba, Maon, Mount Joher, Negohot, Shani, Shima and Sosia.

This is the kind of information that Kershner forgot to mention, but it is also the kind of information that will be discussed in great detail, looking at all parts of the West Bank and trends over time, at our upcoming Palestine Center briefing on settler violence. If you can't make to it DC, you can watch the live streaming webcast of the event at our website. Maybe Kershner can follow the live stream from Jerusalem and give settler violence the attention it deserves.
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Nonsense Round-Up: Direct Talks

There is likely to be a good deal of nonsense in the media this week with the restart of direct negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians in Washington. Two recent examples are features in today's nonsense round up. Let's begin this column in today's Washington Post, a paper where it seems there is a three-way competition between Charles Krauthammer, George Will and Richard Cohen for "Most anti-Arab columnist."

Today, in a column titled "Time stands still in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict" Cohen begins:
"Say what you will about the Arab world, it's hard to earn its gratitude. President Obama went to Egypt and not Israel. He demanded that Israel cease adding new settlements in the West Bank. He treated Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu with a chilling disdain. For all of that, though, Obama's approval rating in Arab countries has sunk. Unlike almost a fifth of Americans, the Arab world clearly knows Obama is no Muslim."
Cohen sets the tone for his readers with an opening line that insinuates that the Arab world (which he seems to conflate with the Islamic world throughout this piece) is a monolith of insatiable ingrates. For Cohen, asking Israel to fulfill its first phase obligation in the Road Map, which it accepted back in 2003, is a demand the Arabs should be grateful that the United States weakly made 7 years late. He then reminds us that the Arab world is probably better educated than almost a fifth of Americans who fall prey to the fear-mongering of majoritarian politicos.
"The polls show some startling numbers. When this spring the Pew Global Attitudes Project asked residents of Islamic countries what they thought about Obama, he got good marks when it came to such matters as climate change. But when the question was the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the numbers not only declined in Indonesia and Turkey, they nearly went through the floor in the three Arab countries polled. In Jordan, 84 percent disapproved of the way Obama was handling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In Egypt, the figure was 88 percent and in Lebanon it was 90 percent."
There is nothing startling about this rather predictable result. The Arab world was dismayed with Bush, they got Obama and expected a change; and after a year and a half of waiting for it, they don't see much of a difference between Obama and his predecessor.
"For Obama, the figures must be disheartening. They strongly suggest that his attempt to woo the Arab world, to convince it that America can be an honest broker between Israel and the Palestinians, has dismally failed. In fact, the extent of this failure is most stark in Lebanon. There, 100 percent of Shiite respondents -- in other words, Hezbollah and others -- have no faith in Obama and his good intentions. This may be a setback for Obama, but it is paradoxically a success for American values."
So for Cohen, if Shiites think something is bad, that something must be a success for American values since, well, Hezbollah is a Shiite organization. He goes from this guilt by association game to basically making things up.
"What the Arab world seems to appreciate is that America will never agree to what the Arab world most wants -- an Islamic state where a Jewish one now exists. This entirely reasonable conclusion is based on what has long been American policy -- not what the State Department wanted but what the American people supported. America has always liked the idea of Israel. The Arab world, for totally understandable reasons, has always hated it. Nothing has changed."
Cohen is convinced he knows that the Arab world wants to replace Israel with an Islamic state but what supports this bold claim? The Arab world is made up of nearly 300 million souls and regular polling of this population shows significant majorities support a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders (although most are skeptical about it actually happening.)
"A fundamental document in this area -- a once-secret CIA analysis from 1947 -- was unearthed (to my knowledge) by Thomas W. Lippman and reported in the winter 2007 issue of the Middle East Journal. The CIA strongly argued that the creation of Israel was not in America's interests and that therefore Washington ought to be opposed. This was no different than what later diplomats and military men (most recently, David Petraeus) have argued and it is without a doubt correct. Supporting Israel hurts America in the Islamic -- particularly the Arab -- world and, given the crucial importance of Middle Eastern oil, makes no practical sense.

The CIA further argued that the so-called Arab-Israeli conflict would soon widen to become an Israeli-Islamic conflict -- another bull's-eye for what was then an infant intelligence service. That process was already underway, which is why some non-Arabs (Bosnian Muslims, for instance) fought the creation of Israel, and has only intensified as radical Islam, laced with healthy doses of anti-Semitism, has gotten even stronger.
But where the CIA went wrong -- and not, alas, for the last time -- was in predicting that the Arabs would defeat Israel and that the state would not survive. The CIA was pretty sure of the outcome, what a later CIA figure might have called a 'slam dunk.'

What neither the CIA nor, for that matter, the anti-Israel State Department recognized in the late 1940s is that America's interests are not always measurably pragmatic -- metrics, in the jargon of our day. Sometimes, our interests reflect our national ethic, an affinity for other democracies, sympathy for the underdog. These, too, are in America's interests and they may be modified, but not abandoned, for the sake of mere metrics."
It's one thing to suggest that our policies should be based something other than our material interests, its another to suggest, as Cohen does here, that our interests be based on something other than what is best for us. But let's leave that point aside for a moment and just accept the notion that our policies can be crafted to support "other democracies" and be based on "sympathy for the underdog".

There was nothing democratic, especially in the 1940s and 1950s about the state of Israel. This was a state that came to being on the basis of ethnically cleansing the vast majority of the native population. While this can also be said for the United States, I doubt these are the common values between Israel and the United States that Cohen wants to share with his readers.

Further, to imply that the Israelis were the "underdog" is another obfuscation of history. The oft repeated mantra that Israel repelled five invading Arab armies in 1948 insinuates that in that conflict Israel was the "underdog". This farce is best exposed when putting the analogy in different terms. Could you imagine someone arguing that the United States would be the underdog if it was invaded by the combined forces of the 20+ nations in the Caribbean? This is, of course, lunacy because despite the lopsided number of nations involved, the resources and might of the United States would overwhelm this combination of island nations. But most people don't know anything about the relative power balance of nations in the Middle East during the 1940s, and Cohen knows and relies on this fact to peddle the underdog claim. The reality of course is that the Arab armies at the time were, combined, fewer in number than the Israeli forces at every stage of the war, invaded only after Israel had depopulated the majority of the native inhabitants of Palestine and also had incomparable weapons and training.
"This is why Obama's overture to the Arab world, clumsily executed, was never going to succeed. America can please some Arab governments -- Egypt and Jordan, for instance -- but not the Arab people. What they want, and what they have been told repeatedly they deserve, is a return of Palestinian refugees to what is now Israel and control over all of Jerusalem. These are both out of the question as far as Israel is concerned. It is not willing to give up its capital and, in a relatively short time, its Jewish majority.

This week, Palestinians and Israelis will once again talk peace in Washington. But until both sides, particularly the Arab peoples, give up on what they really want, the clock will remain where it has been. Those Pew polls show that's around 1947."
Cohen returns to where he began, the Arabs want more than they deserve. What they want, he says, is the right to return. For Cohen, it doesn't matter that the right to return is a human right enshrined in the UN Declaration of Human Rights (UNDHR), the foundational human rights document adopted in 1948. What is clear from this column is that the clock in Cohen's head is stuck around 1947, a time before the UNDHR, when human rights were not afforded to all peoples.

The nonsense continues with Cal Thomas writing this piece recently in the Miami Herald. Here is the opening:
"Never has George Santayana's oft-quoted warning had greater significance than when it comes to Middle East 'peace talks,' including the latest round scheduled to begin Sept. 2 in Washington, D.C. In constantly pressuring Israel to go far beyond the multiple and unreciprocated concessions it has already made, the United States ensures repetition of past mistakes, which will produce the same outcome."
Welcome to another twisted mind who thinks Israel, which continues to received unrivaled support from the United States, has been pressured to make concessions. He goes on to present "some history" to support his claim, like Cohen's, that you can never make a greedy Arab happy, therefore, taking more of there land is okay.
"Some history and the results for those who would learn:
• The Balfour Declaration (1917) and the Palestinian Mandate (1922). These called for the formation of a Jewish homeland while recognizing 'nothing shall be done which might prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine.' The Arab response: A series of riots, largely instigated by Mufti Mohammad Amin al-Husayni."
Predictably, Thomas' Israel-Palestine History 101 begins at 1917 with the Balfour Declaration. There is no mention of who Balfour is (a Brit), or why a Brit is dictating things to the people of Palestine. No mention of the Husayn-Macmahon correspondence which predates and contradicts Balfour. No mention that Balfour sought to establish a Jewish state in a land where 90% of the inhabitants were not Jewish or that this could be problematic. No mention that the disingenuous Balfour declaration would prejudice the political rights of 90% of the population. Nope, no mention of anything that may make you understand why the Arab response was "a series of riots." For Thomas' reader is simply supposed to accept that the Arab is a violent, reactionary creature with whom little talking can be done.
• The Peel Commission (1936) was formed to investigate the cause of the Arab Revolt (1936-1939). The commission recommended the partition of Jews and Arabs. The Zionist Congress accepts the proposal as the basis of negotiation. The Arab response: Outright rejection and a continuation of the revolt.
He gets the date of the Peel Commission wrong, probably because he plagiarized his talking points from George Will's column from two weeks ago. There are always A students and C students like George Will who get their facts wrong, in any class. Then, there are F students like Thomas, who can't even cheat off the right person.
• U.N. Partition Plan for Palestine (1947) proposed a two-state solution and a divided Jerusalem supervised by the United Nations. The Arab response: Outright rejection, followed by violence. When Israel declared its independence, May 15, 1948, armies of the neighboring Arab states invaded. According to the secretary general of the Arab League at the time, Azzam Pasha, the goal was 'a war of extermination and a momentous massacre which will be spoken of like the Mongolian massacres and the Crusades.'
The UN Partition Plan in 1947 was rejected for much the same reasons as Balfour was. It would give disproportionate political control to a minority over the majority population of native inhabitants. But Thomas don't want to fuss with the details, all you need to know is that the Arabs are greedy rejectionists. I rebut the"Arabs invaded when Israel declared its independence" myth above.
• Oslo Accords (1993). Negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians lead to a Declaration of Principles on Interim Self-Government Arrangements. The response, according to the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The killing continues. By one estimate, almost 300 people were killed by Palestinian terrorism between 1993 and 2000.
Thomas makes no mention that the cycle of violence in the Oslo period was kicked off by an Israeli settler who killed 30 Palestinians and injured over 120 more as they prayed in a mosque. Or that during this same period (1993-2000) 804 Palestinians were killed. Nor does he mention that during this period Israel aggressively built settlements in the West Bank, especially around Jerusalem, making a contiguous Palestinian state nearly impossible.
• The Camp David Offer (2000). Prime Minister Ehud Barak offers PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat most of what he asks for. The response: rejection and the second intifada, which according to Israel's Foreign Ministry, killed more than 500 and injured more than 8,000.
Camp David was a failure for a number of reasons and explaining the details takes far more than the measly lines Thomas dedicated to misleading his readers about them. Here is a good explanation. Note that again, only Israeli deaths matter to Thomas, as there is no mention of the 6500+ Palestinians killed by Israelis since the year 2000.
"There were other 'peace talks' and initiatives, among them the Madrid Peace Conference (1991), the Wye River Memorandum (1995), Oslo II (1995), Taba (2001), Road Map for Peace (2003), and the Geneva Accord (2003). Some of these led to Israeli withdrawal from land it had occupied for security purposes, amid continued threats and terrorism, following the 1967 War. These withdrawals predictably led to more terror attacks from Arab regions."
None of these things led to Israeli withdrawals from anywhere. Even though it maintains effective control over the sea, airspace and borders of Gaza, Israel removed its settlers, whose presence there was illegal, in 2005. It also ended, a significant part of its occupation of southern Lebanon in 2000 after two decades during which hundreds of Palestinian and Lebanese civilians were killed. The end of belligerent occupation was required by international law and these decisions were made unilaterally by the Israelis, with no coordination with other parties. None of the talks or initiatives mentioned by Thomas precipitated this withdrawals. This is pure fabrication.
"To Israel's enemies, talks and agreements are incremental steps toward their ultimate goal of annihilating the Jewish state. Two examples: According to the Endowment for Middle East Truth, 16 years after Oslo, in 2009, the official of the terrorist organization Fatah continues to affirm 'armed struggle' against Israel. And the Palestinian Authority continues to practice incitement against Israel through student textbooks, television programs, sermons, editorials and the naming of public streets and buildings after terrorist 'martyrs.'"
According to the Endowment for Middle East Truth (which sounds too Orwellian for Orwell), it describes itself as "unabashedly pro-Israel". 'Nuf said.
"At the upcoming talks in Washington, the issues will likely be the same as Camp David 2000:

• Jerusalem. The Palestinian demand for a 'right of return' for 'refugees' and their descendants to places in Israel from which the original 'refugees' claim to have come. This would overwhelm Israel, which is the point of the demand.

• Territorial compromise (again). Agreement on the legitimacy of Israel's sovereignty in the region, producing an end to the war and termination of future claims, which Hamas and Hezbollah have promised never to accept.

• If the all-too-familiar scenario plays out, Israel will give up more land, the Palestinians will make more promises that, like the others, they will break and more riots and terrorism will follow under the pretext that Israel has not ceded enough. After the maximum propaganda value has been extracted, the Palestinians will agree to more talks and the scenario will be replayed.

To top it off, the Obama administration has assured Israel that Iran is not an 'imminent' nuclear threat. This claim has been made before and then withdrawn. Why should it have credence now?

The United States and the West have learned nothing from history and, thus, are doomed to repeat it."
If we have learned anything from Cal Thomas' column, it is that we are surely doomed if we are relying on his history.
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