Signs of the Times: Two Indications of the Future of Israel/Palestine?

Two news stories caught my eye today which I think speak to the future of Israeli politics and policy and, perhaps more importantly, to the implications for Palestinians which are the subjects and often targets of those policies.

One story spoke about future of Israeli voters. Electoral results over the past several years have made it clear that the Israeli polity is shifting drastically to the right. The Likud party, the ideological offspring of Ze'ev Jabotinsky and Revisionist Zionism, holds the second most seats in the Knesset today and currently heads the government. The Kadima party, or "Likud-lite," holds one more seat than Likud in Knesset but was left out of the current government. It is important to keep in mind that Kadima was formed out of Likud because of tactical differences and not necessarily ideological ones. So with Likud and "Likud-lite" taking the top two spots in Israeli politics, who's next on the list? The ultra-nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party led by Avigdor Lieberman. Lieberman's party, with 15 seats, has established itself as a force to be reckoned with in Israeli politics and is central to the Likud-led coalition. Clearly, Israeli politics is top heavy with right-wing parties, and that's without mentioning the religious-right wing parties that come next on the totem pole.

What of the left? Well, the labor party, a traditional powerhouse in Israeli politics (which counts as left by default), has been decimated. Its poor showing in the last election was exacerbated by a recent split in the party. Other parties on the left end of the political spectrum, like the communist parties, Meretz and the Arab parties, have been marginalized to the point where they are insignificant in power calculations.

So what does the future look like? That's the subject of this news story. A new poll finds that Israeli youth are shifting significantly further to the right as well. Here is what you need to know:

Among Jewish youths, support for the definition of Israel as a Jewish state as the most important goal for the country grew from 18.1 percent in 1998 to 33.2 percent last year, the survey reports. At the same time, there has been a consistent drop in those who back the importance of Israel's identity as a democratic country - from 26.1 percent in 1998 to 14.3 percent in 2010.

Support for Israel to eventually live in peace with its neighboring countries also fell significantly, from 28.4 percent 12 years ago to 18.2 percent last year. This is the third such survey of young people conducted by the two organizations in the past 12 years.

The study was carried out in July 2010, among a representative sample of Jewish and Arab youth. It included 1,600 participants, 800 aged 15-18 and 800 21-24, which is considered a relatively large group.

The right wing enjoyed a clear majority of support among the young people surveyed. Among Jews, the numbers stood at 57 percent and 66 percent for the two age groups respectively, while those who said they considered themselves to be left wing made up only 13 percent and 10 percent of those respondents.

In the past, the conventional wisdom on this was that Israeli youths tend to be more liberal until joining the army at 18 for three years -- an experience that more often than not hardened their attitudes towards Arabs and security. But the disturbing trend that is clear from this poll is that even before the Army, Israeli Jewish youth are moving rightward and fast. This is very good news for the people in the current Israeli government and very bad news for anyone who wants to see an end to Israeli occupation. Political parties vying for votes in Israel into the future will likely have to continue moving right (if that's possible) to secure re-election. Some signs of this were noticeable this week.

The second story is also very troubling. It seems the Israeli government is entertaining a plan to build an island off the coast of Gaza where an air and sea port would be located to "encourage tourism" and "relieve Israel of the obligation to be the transit point for goods into the enclave." I'm sure you are probably thinking I just made that up and that this is an early April fools joke, but it's not.

The plan of course makes no logistical sense, nor is it efficient. Gaza actually had an airport, until the Israelis destroyed it. And, unless you are bored and have money to waste, the idea of building an island off the coast of land which badly needs development is sheer insanity.

The island would "be three square miles and it would be linked to Gaza with a three mile-long bridge which could take vehicles, trains and pipes for oil and gas. The island would have hotels, tourist areas, a marina with yachts and an airport and a seaport." My first thought upon reading this was that it took boots on the ground, bulldozers and tanks to destroy the last airport Gaza had, but a bridge can be destroyed by one bomb. Without sovereignty over the territory, Israel retains the ability to cut Gaza off from this magical island any time they want.

Why build an island when simply removing the Israeli boot from Gaza's throat by ending the siege could unlock Gaza's potential?

The fact that such ideas are even entertained speaks to Israeli strategic thinking about Gaza. The plan "would cost up to $10bn (£6.2bn), create 100,000 jobs and take up to 10 years to complete." This suggests that as far as the Israelis are concerned, the policy of siege is a long-term strategic framework at the foundation of their thinking and not on the surface of it. Simply speaking, the siege of Gaza is the new normal, so much so in fact that it's leading the Israelis to come up with all kinds of abnormal, bend-over-backwards plans to keep it in place.

This Israeli government will come up with anything, it seems, except a genuine and just peace.

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