Dec 5, 2012

Electing Apartheid: How the Settlers Impact the Vote in Israel


As Israel moves toward another election on 22 January 2013, a right-wing Israeli government has announced even more colonial expansion projects in recent days. To better understand the reasoning behind this move, you have to understand the relationship Israeli political parties have with the settlement enterprise and the overlapping political interests they share.

In the past, understanding the impact of the Israeli settlers on the vote in Israel has been somewhat difficult. Haaretz put together this tool to understand the vote in the last Israeli election in 2009. It  helps to understand basic trends, but as you can see, it only includes information on voting patterns in two Israeli colonies, Ariel and Maale Addumim. However, over 120 Israeli colonies exist in the West Bank.

I searched for nuanced data on the 2009 election broken down by locality. The only data that exists is in Hebrew (I can't imagine why the Israeli government would want to place a language barrier between this information and the Western world) After translating, coding, and crunching, I've compiled aggregate and dis-aggregate data on Israeli voting patterns in the 2009 election by locality. This allows us to isolate the vote in the settlements and understand their impact. Below is a chart below that helps explain.

[Click to enlarge]

The chart above shows the major parties running for election in 2009. You can see three different categories: Settlers, Non-Settlers and Jerusalem. Since the Israeli government treats its illegally annexed municipality of Jerusalem as one entity, it is impossible to parse out voting patterns for settlements like Pisgat Zeev or Har Homa, including many others, which are across the green line but considered part of Jerusalem by Israel. Since this is Israeli government data, there isn't much we can do about that except for listing Jerusalem separately so as not to conflate Israeli settlers in Jerusalem with the non-settler vote.

The Israeli parliament, or Knesset, is a 120 seat body which the parties seek to control by winning a majority of the seats or by forming coalitions to create a majority. The parties which ultimately formed the next Israeli government after the elections in 2009 have (GOVT) below their names in the chart. A couple things are immediately obvious.

First, where voters live matters, especially if it is in a colony. Some parties perform far better or worse among settlers vs non-settlers. The Kadima party, for example, took the largest percent of the overall vote but a very small percentage of the settler vote. The National Union party took a very significant percent of the settler vote but very little of the non-settler vote. To be clear, the 650,000 Israelis living beyond the green line make up less than 10% of the Israeli voting population. That being said, in a parliamentary systems with multiple parties (34 ran in 2009) a significant edge among even this size segment of a population can tip the scales. Especially when there was near-parity between the Likud (the traditional right-wing powerhouse) and Kadima (what is today referred to in Israel as "centrist" opposition) in the non-settlement vote. The definition of  "Centrist" in Israel today is significantly detached from the political/ideological spectrum and seems to mean "biggest party not called Likud". Thus, while the settler population is a small segment of the voting population overall, it is significant enough to change political trends and the stances of parties who must evolve to maintain political viable in an increasingly right-leaning state.

Second, almost every party in the government that was formed took a larger percentage of the settler vote than the non-settler vote. It should come as no surprise then that the Israeli Prime Minister and head of this coalition, Benjamin Netanyahu, declared, "There is no government that supports, or will support, settlement more than my government."

Netanyahu is right about the first part. His government is clearly the most pro-settler government in history. And, as the voting patterns show, there are clear political reasons for this; scratch my back and I scratch yours. This creates an incentive structure geared toward feeding the interests of those voters in return for loyalty (i.e. settlement expansion). This is part of a cycle, of course, because as settlements expand and settler populations grow, their role in determining Israeli politics increases.

But where Netanyahu is wrong is about the future, at least if voting patterns and demographic trends hold constant. It is very likely that future Israeli governments will support settlements more than Netanyahu's government does. Yes, that's right. Consider our next chart which breaks down votes won in Israeli settlements by the religiosity of those settlements.

[Click to enlarge]

Now consider this: the birthrate among all Israeli Jews is about three children per family. If that seems high, it is because it is driven up by the West Bank Orthodox Israeli settler birthrate, which is 7.7 children per family. Check out more details on demographic changes in this infographic. Overall, the Israeli settler population is growing about three times faster than the rest of the Israeli population.

Some "Liberal Zionists" might find this troublesome, but this was all part of the plan. The aim behind the settlement project was twofold. Not only did Israeli settlements in the West Bank create a geographic obstacle to a viable, contiguous Palestinian state, they also created a political obstacle as well. Both at this point have rendered the two-state outcome dead; given Israeli political dynamics, the Israeli government is not going to be willing to equally power-share in a one-state outcome until they face serious costs. As we've seen in recent weeks, Israel will continue to be isolated in a world that rejects this system but ultimately the system of Apartheid will collapse. But the incentives Israeli political leaders continue to face domestically have them flying full-speed ahead toward this collapse. We can only pray for the quickest, most turbulence-free trip on the way there and think about what we can do to expedite the process. Here is one place to start.



53 comments: on "Electing Apartheid: How the Settlers Impact the Vote in Israel"

Drusilla Richards said...

i get new information, new ideas to do somethings, i hope you will share again, i keep waiting for next post, thanks. masters dissertation writing help

Cerita Medan said...

This wonderful post for you. I assure this would be beneficial for most of the people.
Jasa Iklan Facebook
Jersey Bola
This article gives the light in which we can observe the reality. This is very nice one and gives indepth information. Thanks for this nice article.
Romance Bay
Pantai Romantis

Muneer Ahmed said...

This site is half the battle of the genus of the genus. It belonged to what was already a lot of it is not well suited for the life of the other... Motley Models

Sandra said...

Well I am not really an expert in politics. This area is not very interetsing for me. I am more interested in finding masters dissertation writing help online.

Mr Khan said...

I haven’t any word to appreciate this post.....Really i am impressed from this post....the person who create this post it was a great human..thanks for shared this with us.

https://unoeurorabatkode.wordpress.com/

Mr Khan said...

You are able to fix it. Prepare their own routine similar to precisely what is time for you to browse online and also time and energy to full their particular homework.

21 day fix

Mr Khan said...

This post is really top notch, my friend. I have never seen such a beautiful post in my entire life. Thanks a lot for posting this fine post today. Cheers, mate!

21 day fix review

Mr Khan said...

This post is really top notch, my friend. I have never seen such a beautiful post in my entire life. Thanks a lot for posting this fine post today. Cheers, mate!

buy youtube views cheap

Mr Khan said...

I found your this post while searching for some related information on blog search...Its a good post..keep posting and update the information

buy youtube likes

Mr Khan said...

Excellent blog here. It’s out-of-the-way quality writing. If truth be told I appreciate the people like you! Take care,.

coc hack

Mr Khan said...

his is my first time i visit here. I found so many entertaining stuff in your blog, especially its discussion. From the tons of comments on your articles, I guess I am not the only one having all the leisure here! Keep up the excellent work.

Unblock Brick Lego King Free

Mr Khan said...

Nice to be visiting your blog again, it has been months for me. Well this article that i’ve been waited for so long. I need this article to complete my assignment in the college, and it has same topic with your article. Thanks, great share

Unblock Brick Lego King Free

Mr Khan said...

Thanks For sharing this Superb article.I use this Article to show my assignment in college.it is useful For me Great Work.

Belanja di Elevenia Gratis Voucher 1 Juta

Mr Khan said...

Thanks For sharing this Superb article.I use this Article to show my assignment in college.it is useful For me Great Work.

Belanja di Elevenia Gratis Voucher 1 Juta

Mr Khan said...



I am happy to find your distinguished way of writing the post. Now you make it easy for me to understand and implement the concept. Thank you for the post. stamped concrete ma


chromecast setup

Mr Khan said...

At the point when your site or web journal goes live surprisingly, it is energizing. That is until you understand nobody yet you and your.

chromecast ios

Mr Khan said...

I have been researching every aspect of a possible career move. This post is very helpful and shows that you have a lot of knowledge on the topic. Do you have any others?

clash of clans new dark troops

Mr Khan said...

I would be exceptionally appreciative in the event that you proceed with quality what you are serving at this moment with your blog.

decorative concrete nh

Mr Khan said...

I am get amazed after saw this post.. It is very informative to all.. Thank you very much for this info and keep going....

recommended stamped concrete in ma

Jessica Kit said...

best-custom-essays.com offers help with nattive essays :)

Mr Khan said...

I am currently teaching a class and part of the curriculum involves this subject matter. Do you have any other posts I can look at regarding this?

Watch Movies Online

Mr Khan said...

I have been studying this topic for a long time. You have provided great information in your post and some things I have not seen in other content I have read by others.

tammysbedding

Mr Khan said...

I have been researching every aspect of a possible career move. This post is very helpful and shows that you have a lot of knowledge on the topic. Do you have any others?

www.superbsweaters.com

Mr Khan said...

I am doing a report on this subject. Your article is full of really useful information. I will make sure to come back to check out your posts for my next report. Cheers

my website learnhowtolapdance.org

Mr Khan said...

I have found this article very exciting. Do you have any others on this topic ? I am also sending it to my friend to enjoy your writing style.

my website learnhowtolapdance.org

Mr Khan said...

Very efficiently written story. It will be useful to anybody who employees it, including me. Keep up the good work – can’t wait to read more posts.

buy instagram likes

Mr Khan said...

Nice to be visiting your blog again, it has been months for me. Well this article that i’ve been waited for so long. I need this article to complete my assignment in the college, and it has same topic with your article. Thanks, great share.

Photography

Mr Khan said...

Your site contains useful information on this topic as I am working on a school project. Thank you posting relative information and its now becoming easier to complete this topic.

21 Day Fix

Mr Khan said...

Your approach to this post is unique and appreciating. I am writing an article for our research paper and this post has helped me. Thanks.

21 Day Fix

Mr Khan said...

You definitely know how to bring an issue to light and make it important. More people need to read this and understand this side of the story.

happy new year 2016 wishes

Mr Khan said...

Thank you for posting such a great article! I found your website perfect for my needs. It contains wonderful and helpful posts. Keep up the good work!

voucher

Mamasitaqwerty Mama said...

Nice to be visiting your blog again, it has been months for me. Well this article that i’ve been waited for so long. subway surf hack android I need this article to complete my assignment in the college, and it has same topic with your article. Thanks, great share. clash of clans hack apk

Mamasitaqwerty Mama said...

Your approach to this post is unique and appreciating. I am writing an article for our research paper and this post has helped me. Thanks.
minion paradise hack

Mamasitaqwerty Mama said...

This is an excellent post I seen thanks to share it. It is really what I wanted to see hope in future you will continue for sharing such a excellent post. fifa 16 hack android

Mamasitaqwerty Mama said...

Your site contains useful information on this topic as I am working on a school project. Thank you posting relative information and its now becoming easier to complete this topic. darkness reborn hack android

Naman Singh said...

Thanks for post this helpful post - Please visit for More information about -
Movers and Packers Mumbai
Movers and Packers Pune
Movers and Packers Bangalore

Naman Singh said...

Thanks for Nice and Informative Post. This article is really contains lot more information about This Topic.
Movers and Packers Hyderabad
Movers and Packers Noida
Movers and Packers Delhi
Movers and Packers Gurgaon

Anya General said...

I Feel Bad Israel. People Do cast vote but did not get for what they have voted.

I had problem in Set up Chromecast but also fixing it. I saw that is already expected. They need strong leadership.

Mr Khan said...

I have found this article very exciting. Do you have any others on this topic ? I am also sending it to my friend to enjoy your writing style.

blossom blast saga hack

Mr Khan said...

It proved to be Very helpful to me and I am sure to all the commenters here! It’s always nice when you can not only be informed, but also entertained!

check this out

ams boss said...

I have bookmarked you to check out new stuff of your blog. A must read!!!!
webseobuy

ams boss said...

Thank you, I've been seeking for info about this subject matter for ages and yours is the best I have discovered so far.
enablersinvestment

Mr Khan said...

Much appreciated a whole lot for this extraordinary article;this is the stuff that keeps me experiencing out these day.

dowry section 498a

Aditya Singh said...

I have bookmarked you to check out new stuff of your blog. A must read!!!!
angel investors india

Mr Khan said...

I agree with your blog and i will be back to check it more in the future so please keep up your work. michael kors outleti love your content & the way that you write.

look here

slim said...




Step Up Height Increaser is a 100% Ayurvedic Body Growth System.
Step Up offers Amazing Results! After using StepUp Height Increaser you will see new confidence in yourself.
Step Up Height Increaser is a revolutionary step by step total growth system, It gives the required nutrients to
the body that help to increase height & also lead to total body growth.

Sumit Thakur said...

I like the way you are spreading these information here. It feels good when someone put so much efforts in doing some great stuff.
Free Images
Good Morning Cartoon Images
Cartoon Images HD
Frozen Pictures

Sorry Images For Boyfriend